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Old January 18th, 2006, 12:17 PM   #13
Nittany Dodgers
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Default Re: Unofficial 2006 Rookie Bonuses

Quote:
Originally Posted by Preds
oddly, I'm not sure.

For whatever reason, the Frenzy doesn't place a high enough value on TE's, but I think that will change. I expect the TE scale to go up, and think guys like Gates, Gonzo, Shockey, etc should need tenders at 1000 or or so to net a first (I believe it's at 750?).

On the other hand, QB's have been trending downwards, and I think we should lower it a bit.

IMO, QB's and TE's should probably have the same scale, since both are start 12 positions.

As for WR's, the scale definately needs to be higher for the top tier, maybe not so much for the middle tiers.
Definitely agreed WRs need to go up, but I definitely disagree that QBs and TEs should have the same scale just because we both start 12. By that logic, Ks and Defense should be on the same scale.

As far as TEs being undervalued, I have always made that argument. I do think the salaries will be coming up. Witten and Schockey are near or at the end of their rookie contracts. I think Gates' cheap contract is up as well. However, until we see these go up, and to what point they go, I hesitate to adjust. We know WRs are a problem, so we reactionarily adjust them. Until TEs become a problem, I don't think we need to adjust.

I remember the Swords and I have a brief conversation on the theory behind RFA tender levels, and the relationship to an overvalued and undervalued position. Do you set the RFA tender level at the "real" value (say determined by VBD) or at the market level?

Right now, with each position (assuming an upward adjustments with WRs), there are only a handful of players that have salaries above the 1st round tender level, yet those salaries are significantly above that level. If there were free market forces for all tight ends, I would think maybe 5 tops go above our current 750 top level, and the rest falling quickly below that level, yet there is only 1 above that level currently.

Look at RBs. Do we think we have that level correct? There are only 4 RBs over the top tender level currently, but the following players are on their rookie contract and I would think would make more than the 2000 top level: Portis, Larry Johnson, McGahee, KJones (well, maybe not anymore), Julius Jones, Stephen Jackson, Cadillac. If you think there is not enough money for all these guys to take big salaries, I simply point to Tony Fisher's 1050 cb salary. There is plenty of free money in the league.

Bottom line, TEs aren't a problem yet, and I hesitate to tick them up until it is. The best tight ends are deserving of 1st round compensation, but I don't think tight ends should be the exception where you should have to tag them at a price not yet supported in the market. No one would hesitate to spend 1200 on the hands down best QB in the league, 2000 for the hands down best RB, 1800 for the best WR, why should a Gates owner have to take a risk at tagging him at a price not yet paid in the Frenzy by anyone other than myself in the history of the league (as far as I know)?
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