3.06 FS Reggie Nelson - Jacksonville

[Cheezy]

6'0, 193 lbs, 4.37 40, 39" vert, always around the ball. Should start soon, too.
The exact opposite of a :homer pick here, as his team broke my heart.
Can't ignore his talent though. Gotta get over the past.

[Preds]

He was on my radar, however, I drafted a slew of good younfg DB's last year, and was more focused on DL or LB for my 3.07 pick.

Looks like a good player here though. Nice pick.

[smsmith40]

Damn! People really go after IDP early here, especially considering their relative lack of value in the SACD

[pacificscrub]

Originally Posted by smsmith40

Damn! People really go after IDP early here, especially considering their relative lack of value in the SACD

Interesting comment considering every one of the top 10 linebackers outscored every single WR and TE in 2006. The DT/DE's are lower than the WR's, but still higher than the TE's (even those $2200 ones!). The Corners/Safeties fall just short the wideouts, but the point is made.

[smsmith40]

That's not what defines value in a fantasy league. As an example, RBs score approximately the same as QBs on average so why are they so much more valuable? There are 32 starting QBs and 32 starting RBs, 25 of each are viable fantasy starters, we start one QB so that's OK, we are likely to have a starter and a backup, we start two RBS so we can't all have 2 viable starters and a backup.

In the case of IDPs, there are 64 starting DEs (lets ignore DTs for sake of argument), around 100 starting LBs and 64 starting Safeties (again lets ignore CBs), because collectively we will only start 24 of each we also keep much less IDPS on the roster, largely because if something goes wrong there will be viable players on the waiver wire.

There are also other factors which decrease the value of IDPs including the fact that performance year to year is much less predictable (hands up who thought Aaron Kampman would be the highest scoring DL last year), but th main determinant of value in a closed league is roster requirements NOT average scoring.

In both my other IDP leagues, IDP players are much more valuable because we start more IDPs (11 and 9 respectively).

[pacificscrub]

Very true on the point avg, but I'll disagree on the predictability part. I for one had Kampman in both of my other IDP leagues. As far as predicting who would be on top at the end of the year, I would argue that only Colts homers would have predicted Marvin would be the top scoring WR due to age, other options on his team, etc.

It's not so much who you think will score the most for a category as it is picking up a guy at a price that is low in proportion to his value at the position (while still scoring a decent point total of course). After the first 1.5 - 2 rounds, you're likely to get better production out of a top defensive player than a 3rd string RB or a wideout you just hope ends up making the roster in more than just a special teams role. I'm not saying some of those late round picks won't be diamonds in the rough, but I think you're much more likely to score well with your first choices at IDP positions than you will with your 8th or 10th choice in an offensive category.

[Preds]

Originally Posted by pacificscrub

Very true on the point avg, but I'll disagree on the predictability part. I for one had Kampman in both of my other IDP leagues. As far as predicting who would be on top at the end of the year, I would argue that only Colts homers would have predicted Marvin would be the top scoring WR due to age, other options on his team, etc.

It's not so much who you think will score the most for a category as it is picking up a guy at a price that is low in proportion to his value at the position (while still scoring a decent point total of course). After the first 1.5 - 2 rounds, you're likely to get better production out of a top defensive player than a 3rd string RB or a wideout you just hope ends up making the roster in more than just a special teams role. I'm not saying some of those late round picks won't be diamonds in the rough, but I think you're much more likely to score well with your first choices at IDP positions than you will with your 8th or 10th choice in an offensive category.

:clap :clap :clap
My draft reaching friends "Dos Clowns" hit the nial on the head with the final paragraph here.

[smsmith40]

Perhaps but its harder to find a 3rd WR than it is to find a 2nd DL, my prediction is that there will not be a single starting WR on the waiver wire by the second game of the season and there will be at least 10 starting DEs available. That's why any WR/RB with even the potential to crack the starting lineup is so valuable.

THere are at least a couple of articles on FBG with the statistics to prove that IDP future performance is harder to predict from past performance than offensive players.

I had Kampman in SACD last year and I franchised him this year but he wouldn't have been in most people's top 5 DEs at this point last year, I'll be Harrison would have made most people's list

[smsmith40]

I just saw your post Preds and I agree with you to an extent, IDP picks are very safe things to do with late round choices and I might well do the same with my upcoming picks but the original point I was making is that IDPs are relatively less valuable in this league yet on average they are picked much higher than in my other leagues. For instance I got Nelson in a league where you have to start 4 DBs at the 5.04

[Preds]

Originally Posted by smsmith40

I just saw your post Preds and I agree with you to an extent, IDP picks are very safe things to do with late round choices and I might well do the same with my upcoming picks but the original point I was making is that IDPs are relatively less valuable in this league yet on average they are picked much higher than in my other leagues. For instance I got Nelson in a league where you have to start 4 DBs at the 5.04

Looking at your Europeon league, the IDP's went much higher. Do you have a link to the other draft?

BTW, I agree with you on the depth of starters, more starting IDP's equates to creating value structures more in line with the IOPs, however, the negative is, your 9 or 11 starting defensive players will then often outscore your 8 starting offensive players.

[pacificscrub]

Originally Posted by smsmith40

I had Kampman in SACD last year and I franchised him this year but he wouldn't have been in most people's top 5 DEs at this point last year, I'll be Harrison would have made most people's list

Sure and Moss would have been in most people's top 5 two years ago. Proven offensive threats can be just as unpredictable as defensive players, although I will agree that there is definitely more risk with defensive players. While a receiver needs a QB to get him the ball and even the best running backs need holes to run through, I think defensive players are still more dependent on their teammates than are offensive players (but I digress).

I guess the bottom line is two fold. One, you should be glad that we're leaving you with the 8th best running back on your board instead of the 10th. Two, you'll just have to adjust your strategy to reflect the change in how you expected the draft to unfold.