1.01 RB Adrian Peterson, Min

[Preds]

There I did it (for all you naysayers who said my last several posts on the subject were BS).

First off, let me say I LOVE MARSHAWN LYNCH, and really wanted to go there, and had I been drafting 1.01 in the Frenzy that would be my pick, but SACD is a completely different ballgame. Yes I could take Lynch with 1.01, but it's not the value play in SACD.

Here's my logic behind the pick:
A) SACD contracts can be renegotiated, so you have to think Long Term with this pick, thinking that way, if AP is everything everyone says he is, than he makes far more sense than Marshawn from a value perspective.

B) While short term Lynch may be in a better position to start, the offensive line in Buffalo isn't nearly as good as Minnys, and AP is clearly going to be made a big part of that offense.

C) AP plays in a dome, with Field Turf in play there, the surface is no different than 70% of the league, however the copntrolled atmosphere means less opportunity for the weather to impact his role and or increase his chance of injury.

D) Chester Taylor - currently the RB1 on the Vikes, and also on my SACD squad for dirt cheap. As a duo, either Chester or AP are cheap handcuffs to the other.

All that said, whomever drafts Lynch, if you prefer AP contact me, and perhaps we can work a deal that gets me the player I love short term and some value back that I gave up in trading up for AP.

[Preds]

1 down 3 to go (with images that is).

[Popes]

Originally Posted by Preds

There I did it (for all you naysayers who said my last several posts on the subject were BS).

However, this pick does prove to me that all the IMs you sent me (which can be generally summed up as "AP is all hype") when we debated AP vs. Lynch were BS.

Vindication feels good...

[Preds]

Originally Posted by Popes

However, this pick does prove to me that all the IMs you sent me (which can be generally summed up as "AP is all hype") when we debated AP vs. Lynch were BS.

Vindication feels good...

Different circumstances in Frenzy and SACD. There is a big difference. If I had 1.01 in Frenzy Lynch would have been my pick, guarenteed.

You have nothing to feel vindicated about.

[Popes]

Nice try. The funny thing is, that's not what you said. EVER.

And I was even specifically making the argument that Lynch was better short-term, while AP was better long term. You could have said "Oh, I agree, long-term, sure AP's better. It's just that 5 years (Frenzy limit) isn't long-term enough for that to outweigh Lynch's short-term potential."

But the fact is, every single thing you said to me was essentially "AP is all hype; he's nowhere near as good as everyone says he is; Lynch is the best RB in the draft, period". I've since learned that everything you say is just propaganda to shore up your trading position, but I'm just enjoying the realization that you didn't actually believe the crap you were trying to sell me.

I don't have the IM record, of course, but if you'd like, I can quote your comments in the threads to back this up. You can try to use the Frenzy/SACD distinction now, but you were NEVER making that argument then, even when I opened the door wide open for it.

[Preds]

Originally Posted by Popes

Nice try. The funny thing is, that's not what you said. EVER.

And I was even specifically making the argument that Lynch was better short-term, while AP was better long term. You could have said "Oh, I agree, long-term, sure AP's better. It's just that 5 years (Frenzy limit) isn't long-term enough for that to outweigh Lynch's short-term potential."

But the fact is, every single thing you said to me was essentially "AP is all hype; he's nowhere near as good as everyone says he is; Lynch is the best RB in the draft, period". I've since learned that everything you say is just propaganda to shore up your trading position, but I'm just enjoying the realization that you didn't actually believe the crap you were trying to sell me.

I don't have the IM record, of course, but if you'd like, I can quote your comments in the threads to back this up. You can try to use the Frenzy/SACD distinction now, but you were NEVER making that argument then, even when I opened the door wide open for it.

Funny, I don't recall ever discussing :frenzy vs. :sacd with you when it came to the 2 of them. I DID talk from a :Frenzy perspective at the time, however, since A, we were in the midst of the Frenzy draft, and B you're a Frenzy leaguemate, so I saw no reason to discuss it any other way.

My Frenzy needs and SACD needs are completely different. I stand by everything I said about Lynch. I think Lynch is going to be a HUGE stud and WILL outvalue AP his 1st few years in the NFL. FOr a team built to win now, Lynch is a better play IMO. And again, IF I HAD 1.01 IN :frenzy I WOULD HAVE TAKEN LYNCH.

My SACD team on the other hand is a team I'm building for 2008 or 2009 around a core of young RB's. I can afford more patience with AP and think big picture, particularly looking at the reneg side of things where I can plan on a guy for potentially his entire career.

Also, having Chester Taylor in the fold already makes AP a better match for my SACD team. They provide a level of insurance for each other in the short term that I wouldn't get with Lynch.

Why is it so hard for you to understand that I can value players differently between leagues? Circumstance and rules certainly should play a part.

And quite honestly, I remain a HUGE Lynch supporter and still have my concerns about AP (the hype being one of them), but in SACD, I rolled the dice. Variety is good sometimes ya know?

[smsmith40]

Popes

You should know by now.

Trust no-one

[Popes]

...but especially Mike ;)

[Popes]

Originally Posted by Preds

Funny, I don't recall ever discussing :frenzy vs. :sacd with you when it came to the 2 of them. I DID talk from a :Frenzy perspective at the time, however, since A, we were in the midst of the Frenzy draft, and B you're a Frenzy leaguemate, so I saw no reason to discuss it any other way.

You're right, you never did bring it up. That's my complaint. All you did was slam AP in every conversation we had: he's over-rated, he's not that good, he's all hype, no substance. And now you suddenly say your feelings towards him all along were "oh, actually, he's the best player in the draft, but only long-term (longer than 5 years), and we're not talking long-term enough". Here's an example of how I totally opened the door for you to make that observation.

On IM, you were claiming Lynch was hands-down the best RB (apparently you meant with the silent asterisk of only in leagues with 5 year contracts or less) and I was asserting that AP was hands-down the best RB. When we hit a wall after using up our arguments, I hit you with something along the lines of "Well, you're in the minority here. The large majority of commentators, ranking folks, and FF players think AP is the best of the RBs. So, if anyone here is 'crazy' it's you and your assessment, not me". There was your PERFECT opportunity to reply: "Well that's because they are looking at a full career and there I agree, AP is better. But I'm taking about the Frenzy's limited 5 year contracts and THAT'S why Lynch gets the nod". Funny, but you didn't even mention it.

So either you've changed your mind on AP, or you were smokescreening your true feelings about him. I can believe that you felt this way and made this distinction between leagues. I expect that kind of smokescreen. And if that's the case, then my vindication comes in now realizing that you actually agreed with me on AP (because I, and everyone else, was arguing long-term and you apparently agree with us).

Originally Posted by Preds

Why is it so hard for you to understand that I can value players differently between leagues?

It's not. I have no problem with that. My problem is that your assessment of AP's value now is completely at odds with everything you said on this board and to me in IM. Examples:

Re Lynch:

Originally Posted by Preds

Not at all, I just think he's the best RB in this class, and landed in one of the best situations for not only the immediate future, but long term as well.

Originally Posted by Preds

Marshawn Lynch to Buffalo... there's your 2007 1.1 in ALL rookie drafts IMO.

"Best RB short term AND long term". "#1 in ALL rookie drafts". Hmm, those are suspicously broad statements for someone making the very fine distinction of Frenzy vs. SACD and supposedly only arguing AP's not tops in Frenzy. And every statement you made to me in IM was similary broad.

So forgive me if I balk a bit at you taking AP now, in direct opposition to everything you've said about how "not awesome" he is :p

[Nittany Dodgers]

Don't mess with someone fresh out of lawschool.

[Preds]

Jason,

I concede, for the real story behind this pick, I suggest you read the following thread:

http://predsff.com/forums/showthread...6433#post56433

[Popes]

I appreciate the concession. I don't feel the need to type anything that would be considered reveling in it.

[Popes]

[Cheezy]

Love this...

[Preds]

, good stuff... FWIW, I do believe I told what I was doing after the fact, just didn't turn out the way I wanted. A week has passed, time to come clean and have fun with the failed bluff!